A Senior Marketing Scientist with the Ehrenberg-Bass Institute, Kesten is a leading researcher on forecasting methods and applications. He has developed new and better forecasting methods for business and public policy, and his research is widely cited. He has proposed and tested a unifying theory of forecasting, the Golden Rule of Forecasting, and is responsible for a review of evidence confirming the superiority of sophisticatedly simple forecasting methods over complex ones.
Kesten's book The Scientific Method: A Guide to Finding Useful Knowledge (Cambridge 2022) provides checklists to help researchers and stakeholders improve the practice of science. It includes a Foreword by Nobel laureate Vernon L. Smith.
Kesten has... Read more
About me
A Senior Marketing Scientist with the Ehrenberg-Bass Institute, Kesten is a leading researcher on forecasting methods and applications. He has developed new and better forecasting methods for business and public policy, and his research is widely cited. He has proposed and tested a unifying theory of forecasting, the Golden Rule of Forecasting, and is responsible for a review of evidence confirming the superiority of sophisticatedly simple forecasting methods over complex ones.
Kesten's book The Scientific Method: A Guide to Finding Useful Knowledge (Cambridge 2022) provides checklists to help researchers and stakeholders improve the practice of science. It includes a Foreword by Nobel laureate Vernon L. Smith.
Kesten has testified to Australian Senate Economics References Committee, and provided submissions to the New Zealand Parliament and to the U.S. Congress. He has been consulted by government agencies in New Zealand and the U.S., and his research has been extensively covered in the popular media, including the Australian Financial Review, the London Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal.
Before joining the University of South Australia, he was a founder and director of four businesses including an economic forecasting and consulting firm and a market research firm. Kesten's CV is available from kestencgreen.com.
About me
| Date | Title |
|---|---|
| 27/06/2017 |
Bolt Report, Sky News: Interview with Kesten Green on the effects of firearms regulations, https://youtu.be/1U4Kq9YcG3Y |
| 11/10/2015 |
Australia’s gun laws: Are they balanced? ABC Radio National, Sunday Extra Program, http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/sundayextra/australia27s-gun-laws3a-are-they-balanced3f/6842136 |
| 18/07/2015 |
Science trumps politics and patronage: Al Gore is ‘losing the bet’ against scientific forecasting. WUWT: Watts Up With That?, https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/07/18/science-trumps-politics-and-patronage-al-gore-is-losing-the-bet-against-scientific-forecasting/ |
| 24/03/2015 |
Missing the mark on climate change skepticism It’s not about the money, it’s about the science. The Washington Times, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/mar/24/j-scott-armstrong-missing-the-mark-on-climate-chan/ |
| 22/01/2015 |
Warning: The Article You're About To Read Might Make You Laugh --- These Days, Advertising Hyperbole Is Best Found in the Disclaimer. The Wall Street Journal, http://search.proquest.com.access.library.unisa.edu.au/docview/1647298353/2F2403322248460CPQ/1?accountid=14649 |
| 08/01/2015 |
There are limits to how well police and security agencies can protect us. The Advertiser, http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/opinion/kesten-green-and-john-lott-there-are-limits-to-how-well-police-and-security-agencies-can-protect-us/news-story/2f9babc9196afde59443b5eca3914f39 |
About me
Doctor of Philosophy Victoria University of Wellington, NZ
Senior Lecturer, School of Commerce, University of South Australia 2009-present
Senior Research Fellow, Business and Economic Forecasting Unit, Monash University 2005-2009
Founder and Managing Director, Decision Research Ltd 1995-2009
Senior Research Fellow, Victoria Management School, Victoria University of Wellington 2000-2001
Founder and Director, Infometrics Limited, New Zealand 1985-1994
evidence-based forecasting methods; survey research methods; forecasting decisions; the effects of role, interaction, and conflict on decision making; forecasting for negotiations and strategy in business and warfare; judgmental forecasting methods; the use of analogies in forecasting; forecasting for public policy
Research
Research outputs for the last seven years are shown below. Some long-standing staff members may have older outputs included. To see earlier years visit ORCID, ResearcherID or Scopus
Open access indicates that an output is open access.
| Year | Output |
|---|---|
| 2022 |
16
|
| Year | Output |
|---|---|
| 2024 |
|
| 2019 |
Open access
6
5
2
|
| 2018 |
Open access
28
3
|
| 2018 |
Open access
10
7
16
|
| 2016 |
Open access
11
8
3
|
| 2016 |
Open access
4
5
|
| 2015 |
Open access
122
104
38
|
| 2015 |
Open access
152
131
45
|
| 2015 |
Open access
2
3
|
| 2013 |
Open access
106
87
|
| 2012 |
Open access
38
37
|
| 2011 |
Open access
2
2
|
| 2011 |
Open access
26
23
|
| 2010 |
Open access
28
22
|
| 2009 |
|
| 2009 |
Open access
20
21
|
| 2008 |
Open access
12
11
|
| 2008 |
|
| 2008 |
|
| Year | Output |
|---|---|
| 2009 |
|
| 2008 |
Open access
|
Research
evidence-based forecasting methods; survey research methods; forecasting decisions; the effects of role, interaction, and conflict on decision making; forecasting for negotiations and strategy in business and warfare; judgmental forecasting methods; the use of analogies in forecasting; forecasting for public policy
Member, International Institute of Forecasters (IIF) since 2001
Director, International Institute of Forecasters 2010-2014
External engagement & recognition
| Organisation | Country |
|---|---|
| Australian Climate Science Coalition | AUSTRALIA |
| Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics | UNITED STATES |
| Karlsruhe Institute of Technology | GERMANY |
| Ludwig Maximilian University | GERMANY |
| Macromedia University | GERMANY |
| University of Central Oklahoma | UNITED STATES |
| University of Hawaii | UNITED STATES |
| University of Missouri | UNITED STATES |
| University of Pennsylvania | UNITED STATES |
| University of South Australia | AUSTRALIA |
External engagement & recognition
| Engagement/recognition | Year |
|---|---|
MemberInternational Institute of Forecasters (IIF) |
2018 |
Expertise cited in court or legal judgement - Amicus Curiae brief In Support of Greater Baltimore Center for Pregnancy ConcernsThe United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit |
2017 |
MemberInternational Institute of Forecasters (IIF) |
2017 |
Presented at Cost-of-Living Summit held in the Old Legislative Council Chamber of the Queensland ParliamentSenator Malcolm Roberts and PHON Party |
2017 |
MemberInternational Institute of Forecasters (IIF) |
2016 |
Invited submission to public enquiries and consultation process - Regulating choice: The need for evidenceAustralian Senate Economics References Committee |
2015 |
MemberInternational Institute of Forecasters (IIF) |
2015 |
DirectorInternational Institute of Forecasters |
2014 |
Talk to summer interns on Forecasting for public policyInstitute of Economic Affairs, at Kings College, London |
2014 |
DirectorInternational Institute of Forecasters |
2013 |
DirectorInternational Institute of Forecasters |
2012 |
DirectorInternational Institute of Forecasters |
2011 |
DirectorInternational Institute of Forecasters |
2010 |
Forecasting methods; Managerial economics; Managerial finance; Risk management
Teaching & student supervision
Teaching & student supervision
Supervisions from 2010 shown
| Thesis title | Student status |
|---|---|
| Do commercial brand equity metrics provide useful information? | Completed |
| Irrigator trade behaviour in southern Murray-Darling Basin water allocation markets | Completed |
